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Write You - NFL Playoffs: Strategy & Wagering Trends
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In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point fa
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Home field, too, is key. The Colts just manhandled the Chiefs, making them 9-0 at home this season. However, the Colts are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS on the road and now have to head to Baltimore. This brings up the subject of betting trends, too, which I would advise you to proceed with caution.
The Colts, for instance, had gone 28-12 straight up on the road in the regular season since Tony Dungy took the reins in 2002. However, they have now lost 4 straight road games heading into this weekend. And here's the thing about the Colts' road woes: These losses didn't come against good teams. Of the four opponents, only one had a record above .500, yet the Colts lost the games by a combined 40 points!
More important than trends, as far as I'm concerned, are matchups. Despite the big win over Kansas City, you still can't ignore the Colts woeful rush defense. The Dallas Cowboys ran 36 rushing plays in their win. Then the Tennessee Titans more than doubled the Colts' ground output in Week 13, which was nothing compared to the next week. The Jaguars ran for 10 times more yards than the Colts (375 to 34), and used 42 carries to do it. That's the same number of attempts Houston made when the Texans shocked the Colts two weeks later.
On Saturday the Chiefs' Larry Johnson had just 13 carries and was held to 32 yards. Impressive, but that was one game, and at home. The Colts are going to need to do it again versus the Ravens, then again against either the Patriots or Chargers should they advance. All those teams have strong offensive lines and running backs.
This is why it's essential to be patient when analyzing games, because oddsmakers can adjust their lines based on what just happened. Think back with the Colts the last few years in the postseason. In 2003 they flattened Kansas City on the road scoring 38 points, then the next week they scored 14 in a loss at New England.
In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point fav
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The Colts, for instance, had gone 28-12 straight up on the road in the regular season since Tony Dungy took the reins in 2002. However, they have now lost 4 straight road games heading into this weekend. And here's the thing about the Colts' road woes: These losses didn't come against good teams. Of the four opponents, only one had a record above .500, yet the Colts lost the games by a combined 40 points!
More important than trends, as far as I'm concerned, are matchups. Despite the big win over Kansas City, you still can't ignore the Colts woeful rush defense. The Dallas Cowboys ran 36 rushing plays in their win. Then the Tennessee Titans more than doubled the Colts' ground output in Week 13, which was nothing compared to the next week. The Jaguars ran for 10 times more yards than the Colts (375 to 34), and used 42 carries to do it. That's the same number of attempts Houston made when the Texans shocked the Colts two weeks later.
On Saturday the Chiefs' Larry Johnson had just 13 carries and was held to 32 yards. Impressive, but that was one game, and at home. The Colts are going to need to do it again versus the Ravens, then again against either the Patriots or Chargers should they advance. All those teams have strong offensive lines and running backs.
This is why it's essential to be patient when analyzing games, because oddsmakers can adjust their lines based on what just happened. Think back with the Colts the last few years in the postseason. In 2003 they flattened Kansas City on the road scoring 38 points, then the next week they scored 14 in a loss at New England.
In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point fa
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More important than trends, as far as I'm concerned, are matchups. Despite the big win over Kansas City, you still can't ignore the Colts woeful rush defense. The Dallas Cowboys ran 36 rushing plays in their win. Then the Tennessee Titans more than doubled the Colts' ground output in Week 13, which was nothing compared to the next week. The Jaguars ran for 10 times more yards than the Colts (375 to 34), and used 42 carries to do it. That's the same number of attempts Houston made when the Texans shocked the Colts two weeks later.
On Saturday the Chiefs' Larry Johnson had just 13 carries and was held to 32 yards. Impressive, but that was one game, and at home. The Colts are going to need to do it again versus the Ravens, then again against either the Patriots or Chargers should they advance. All those teams have strong offensive lines and running backs.
This is why it's essential to be patient when analyzing games, because oddsmakers can adjust their lines based on what just happened. Think back with the Colts the last few years in the postseason. In 2003 they flattened Kansas City on the road scoring 38 points, then the next week they scored 14 in a loss at New England.
In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point fa
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On Saturday the Chiefs' Larry Johnson had just 13 carries and was held to 32 yards. Impressive, but that was one game, and at home. The Colts are going to need to do it again versus the Ravens, then again against either the Patriots or Chargers should they advance. All those teams have strong offensive lines and running backs.
This is why it's essential to be patient when analyzing games, because oddsmakers can adjust their lines based on what just happened. Think back with the Colts the last few years in the postseason. In 2003 they flattened Kansas City on the road scoring 38 points, then the next week they scored 14 in a loss at New England.
In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point fa
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In 2004 they flattened the Broncos at home 49-24, then the next week scored 3 points at New England. All the money poured in on the Colts that game, pushing the Pats from a 3-point favorite to pick 'em. Final score: Pats 20, Colts 3. Be cautious of one standout performance in the playoffs. The team they play Saturday, the Ravens, is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS at home this season and 19-5 SU, 16-8 ATS their last 24 home games.
The Patriots are 7-1 SU/ATS on the road and Bill Belichick is 12-2 SU, 8-5-1 ATS in the playoffs. However, the Chargers are 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS at home. Last week the reports were that the Patriots were going to spread the field and go no-huddle against the Jets in an attempt to prevent what the Jets had done to confuse the Pats blocking schemes in the previous meeting.
New England went no-huddle early on and the game sailed over the total easily. This week I heard Pats coach Belichick mention that the teams that have been successful against the Chargers this season are the ones that establish ball control to keep the San Diego offense off the field. That might be their strategy Sunday, at least in the first half.
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